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Gulf Stream jumps as an AMOC-collapse warning
In a 0.1° ocean hosing run, the Gulf Stream leaps north near 71.5°W years before AMOC collapses, a pattern also hinted at in altimetry.
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What ocean model and resolution are used?
CESM’s 0.1° Parallel Ocean Program (POP v2).
Source: Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation · DOI · quote verified
How does initial Florida Current compare with observations?
27.3 Sv, about 14% weaker than the observed 31.7 Sv.
Source: Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation · DOI · quote verified
How does initial AMOC at 26.5°N compare with RAPID?
19.9 Sv, 17% stronger than the observed 17 Sv.
Source: Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation · DOI · quote verified
When does AMOC begin to collapse?
Around model year 420, equilibrating to 5.1 Sv.
Source: Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation · DOI · quote verified
What abrupt Gulf Stream shift leads that collapse?
1.97° (219 km) north at 71.5°W between years 392 and 394.
Source: Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation · DOI · quote verified
How large is that jump versus interannual scatter?
The mean shift is a factor of 5.6 larger than the local standard deviation.
Source: Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation · DOI · quote verified
What local SST change accompanies the jump?
About 4°C in two years at 38°N, 71.5°W.
Source: Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation · DOI · quote verified
Does DWBC weakening come first?
Yes—DWBC slope weakens, then the Stream jumps at year 392.
Source: Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation · DOI · quote verified
Why is 0.1° needed versus typical CMIP6 oceans?
1° oceans misplace the Gulf Stream; Cape Hatteras separation is captured here.
Source: Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation · DOI · quote verified
What altimetry product is compared?
AVISO from 1 January 1993 to 1 May 2025.
Source: Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation · DOI · quote verified
Why might Gulf Stream path be an early-warning metric?
Path shifts can lead AMOC collapse and are observed in the upper ocean.
Source: Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation · DOI · quote verified