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How North Atlantic aerosols steered Sahel rain
Fixing aerosols at 1920 levels removes the observed multidecadal Sahel drought–recovery cycle that tracks North Atlantic SST.
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What 20th-century Sahel rainfall pattern is being explained?
Severe drought from the 1950s–1980s then recovery.
Source: Anthropogenic Aerosols Modulated 20th-Century Sahel Rainfall Variability Via Their Impacts on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature · DOI · quote verified
What large ensemble is the main model tool?
CESM1-LE with 40 all-forcing members from 1920–2005.
Source: Anthropogenic Aerosols Modulated 20th-Century Sahel Rainfall Variability Via Their Impacts on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature · DOI · quote verified
What is XAER?
Historical forcing but industrial aerosol emissions fixed at 1920.
Source: Anthropogenic Aerosols Modulated 20th-Century Sahel Rainfall Variability Via Their Impacts on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature · DOI · quote verified
Does the NASST multidecadal pattern survive in XAER?
No—it does not emerge when aerosols are fixed.
Source: Anthropogenic Aerosols Modulated 20th-Century Sahel Rainfall Variability Via Their Impacts on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature · DOI · quote verified
How tightly does NASST track the North Atlantic surface energy budget?
r = 0.90 (p < 0.01).
Source: Anthropogenic Aerosols Modulated 20th-Century Sahel Rainfall Variability Via Their Impacts on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature · DOI · quote verified
How does sulfate burden relate to NASST?
r = −0.82 with NASST; r = −0.79 with surface solar flux.
Source: Anthropogenic Aerosols Modulated 20th-Century Sahel Rainfall Variability Via Their Impacts on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature · DOI · quote verified
How does Sahel rain line up with NASST in CESM1-LE?
In phase, r = 0.84; missing in XAER (r = −0.26).
Source: Anthropogenic Aerosols Modulated 20th-Century Sahel Rainfall Variability Via Their Impacts on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature · DOI · quote verified
What fraction of all-forcing members recover the Sahel–AMV link?
85% at p < 0.05.
Source: Anthropogenic Aerosols Modulated 20th-Century Sahel Rainfall Variability Via Their Impacts on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature · DOI · quote verified
Which aerosol process dominates the NASST effect?
Aerosol–cloud interactions (~two thirds) over aerosol–radiation (~one third).
Source: Anthropogenic Aerosols Modulated 20th-Century Sahel Rainfall Variability Via Their Impacts on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature · DOI · quote verified
Do GHG-only CMIP6 runs reproduce the pattern?
No—hist-ghg does not; aerosols cause the multidecadal swing.
Source: Anthropogenic Aerosols Modulated 20th-Century Sahel Rainfall Variability Via Their Impacts on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature · DOI · quote verified
What observational rainfall set is used?
CRU station-based precipitation over land.
Source: Anthropogenic Aerosols Modulated 20th-Century Sahel Rainfall Variability Via Their Impacts on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature · DOI · quote verified