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China’s planted forests net far less than natural ones

After water, land, and management costs, afforestation’s net ecosystem-service value is 55.9% lower per hectare than natural forest.

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What accounting gap were the authors trying to close?

Traditional VES studies omit many costs, which can exaggerate benefits of afforestation versus natural forest.

How is NVES defined?

NVES = VES − (direct + opportunity + risk costs), with opportunity costs from land rent plus water.

What were 2014 forest areas and gross VES?

69.2×10^6 ha natural and 147.9×10^6 ha planted; total annual VES Ɏ9.6×10^12.

How much did costs cut national forest service value?

Annual NVES was Ɏ6.1×10^12, 35.9% less than gross VES.

How did planted-forest net benefit compare per hectare?

Ɏ15.9×10^3 ha−1, 55.9% less than natural forest.

What was planted-forest survival since 1952?

3.4×10^6 km2 were planted (34.8% of China’s land) but only 837.5×10^3 km2 survived in 2014 (20.6%).

How many provinces had negative planted-forest NVES?

12 provinces (38.7% of 31 regions; 40% of land area), especially arid northwest and some coastal urban regions.

Did timber income erase the planted-forest shortfall?

No. It raised planted and natural net benefits only 9.6% and 3.5% versus NVES.

Where did planted forests survive best?

Southeastern China, where water is abundant and the climate is warm.

What policy conclusion do the authors draw for China?

Conserving natural forests appears more effective than afforestation because natural forests had higher NVES.

Why can gross VES mislead restoration planners?

It ignores water and land opportunity costs, so projects can look beneficial when net value is small or negative.

What water-price shortcut did they use?

Linear interpolation between Beijing (Ɏ1.2 m−3 at 408 m3/person) and the Tibetan Plateau (Ɏ0.17 m−3).