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Europe’s first continent-wide 2.2 km rain projections

A 2.2 km convection-permitting model projects wetter northern winters and drier summers, with summer hourly extremes unlike coarser GCMs.

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What model first provides Europe-wide future CPM projections here?

A 2.2 km Met Office Unified Model convection-permitting climate model.

What drives the 2.2 km Europe runs?

ERA-Interim and 25 km N512 HadGEM3 present- and future-climate simulations.

What future forcing is used?

RCP8.5, with SST deltas from 1990–2010 versus 2090–2110 coupled runs.

What observational data benchmark mean biases?

E-OBS daily land precipitation for 1999–2008.

How wet are the models versus E-OBS over land?

Typically about 30% more precipitation.

What is the winter projection headline?

Wetter winters across Northern Europe with increased extremes.

What happens to summer mean rain?

Drier across Northern and Central Europe, worse over France and Germany than the UK.

Are continental summer hourly extremes strongly increased?

They are much more muted; a Central Europe decrease is not significant versus interannual variability.

Why do CPMs matter for summer extremes versus RCMs?

Parameterized-convection models treat convection differently, so summer extreme changes can diverge.

What grey-zone problem do 12 km models have?

Unrealistic grid-point storms that distort extreme precipitation.

Is there an intermediate nest?

No—25 km HadGEM3 and 79 km ERA-Interim drive 2.2 km directly.