Rising frailty flags one-year death risk

Rapid monthly rises in the electronic frailty index marked older adults twice as likely to die within a year, with high specificity.

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How large was the analytic sample?

26,298 individuals (13,149 cases and 13,149 controls).

What risk did rapidly rising frailty confer?

Twice the likelihood of dying within 12 months vs stable frailty.

What clinical use did authors claim?

eFI in EHRs can identify people at higher risk of dying within 1 year.

What was mean age at death for cases?

85.14 years (SD 5.98).

What about moderately increasing frailty?

0.005 eFI/month rise linked to 58% higher mortality.

How is eFI scored?

Deficits present divided by 36 possible deficits (score 0–1).

How specific was the rapid-rise population flag?

99.1% specificity (PPV 19.8%, NPV 93.3%).

What data system supplied records?

ResearchOne extracts from SystmOne GP records in England.

How often was eFI calculated?

Monthly for 1 year before death (cases) or pseudo-date (controls).

What care implication did authors suggest?

Help clinicians spot older adults dying with frailty who may need appropriate care planning.

What fraction of population had rapidly rising frailty after reweighting?

About 1.1%.