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Alpine birds lose range except water pipit
By 2041–2070, rock ptarmigan suitable area falls about 36% on average, while water pipit range is nearly stable.
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Which four birds?
Rock ptarmigan, water pipit, alpine accentor, and white-winged snowfinch.
Source: Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions · DOI · quote verified
How many occurrence records were collated?
127,309 citizen-science records across the Alps.
Source: Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions · DOI · quote verified
Which model family won the evaluation?
MaxEnt for all four species.
Source: Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions · DOI · quote verified
What future period and scenario?
2041–2070 under a pessimistic SSP585 pathway.
Source: Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions · DOI · quote verified
Most important climate predictor?
Mean annual 2 m air temperature.
Source: Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions · DOI · quote verified
Rock ptarmigan range change?
Suitable area down 24–59%, averaging −35.7%.
Source: Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions · DOI · quote verified
Alpine accentor and snowfinch losses?
Averages of −26.1% and −24.5% suitable area.
Source: Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions · DOI · quote verified
Water pipit outlook?
Minor change, −9% to +7%, averaging +2.1%.
Source: Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions · DOI · quote verified
Harshest GCM?
UKESM1-0-LL produced the most dramatic contractions.
Source: Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions · DOI · quote verified
In-situ vs ex-situ refugia?
In-situ: stay suitable where occupied now; ex-situ: newly suitable unoccupied areas.
Source: Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions · DOI · quote verified
Why mountains squeeze cold-adapted birds?
Pyramidal Alps mean even perfect climate-tracking still shrinks area upslope.
Source: Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions · DOI · quote verified