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Clouds amplified the 2022 Antarctic heatwave

Water-vapor and supercooled-cloud feedbacks added several degrees to the March 2022 East Antarctic heatwave compared with a preindustrial storyline.

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What extreme event is attributed in this paper?

The March 2022 atmospheric-river heatwave over East Antarctica.

How large was the current-versus-preindustrial amplification near Concordia?

5.4 ± 0.2 °C, about 15–25% of the heatwave temperature anomaly.

When did factual and preindustrial temperature time series diverge?

Between 18 and 20 March, after both warmed on 15–16 March.

What cloud change distinguished the current simulation?

A thicker (0–500 m) supercooled liquid-droplet layer versus 0–200 m in the preindustrial run.

How much did incoming longwave radiation increase?

16.0 ± 1.9 W m−2, the dominant radiative change.

What model and resolution were used?

CRYOWRF, one Antarctic domain at 27 km with 64 vertical levels.

How close was simulated peak temperature to observations?

−11.9 °C in CRYOWRF versus −11.6 °C observed; CESM1-CAM5 peaked at −20 °C.

Where does future non-linear amplification shift?

From interior domes toward lower-elevation and coastal regions, especially under SSP5-8.5.

How does future firn liquid water for this event compare with the current simulation?

Increases by factors of 2.4 (SSP2-4.5) and 5.6 (SSP5-8.5) relative to 0.012 Gt currently.

How much meltwater could this single cold-season event produce under SSP5-8.5 by 2100?

Up to 0.079 Gt.

Why do the authors argue GCMs underplayed this event?

Coarse hydrostatic grids poorly represent vertical motion, cloud microphysics, and turbulence, missing liquid-cloud longwave heating.