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Wilder rainfall swings make record storms more likely
Future record-shattering daily downpours become much more probable because extreme-rain variability grows, not only because the mean inches up.
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How is a record-shattering precipitation event defined?
It beats the historical maximum by at least one pre-industrial (1850–1949) standard deviation.
Source: Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability · DOI · quote verified
Which ensemble and scenario supply the main statistics?
The 100-member CESM2-LE under historical forcing then SSP3-7.0.
Source: Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability · DOI · quote verified
Why use 5-year block maxima (5yRx1d)?
To keep only rare, truly extreme daily precipitation events.
Source: Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability · DOI · quote verified
How extreme was the 2021 western European rainfall in a simple GEV?
It exceeded the 1000-year return level fitted to the previous 71 years.
Source: Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability · DOI · quote verified
Does CESM2-LE produce similarly rare storms?
Yes: a future member exceeded its own 1000-year GEV level and had similar meteorology to 2021.
Source: Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability · DOI · quote verified
Where are late-century probability ratios highest?
Low-latitude tropical and monsoon regions, locally as large as 15 by 2100.
Source: Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability · DOI · quote verified
What is the main driver of rising global-scale record-shattering probability in CESM2-LE?
Increasing variability (σ) of 5yRx1d, more than the mean (μ) in most regions and seasons.
Source: Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability · DOI · quote verified
How well do other CMIP6 ensembles match CESM2-LE zonal ratios in summer?
Positive but moderate Pearson correlations from 0.44 to 0.76 for MJJAS.
Source: Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability · DOI · quote verified
Why might CESM2-LE overstate the change?
Its climate sensitivity is on the high end of CMIP6 and SSP3-7.0 is a high-warming scenario.
Source: Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability · DOI · quote verified
In NH winter high latitudes, what makes record-shattering more mean-sensitive?
Large-scale storms have relatively low variability, so a large mean 5yRx1d trend dominates.
Source: Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability · DOI · quote verified
Clausius–Clapeyron water-holding capacity increases at about what rate?
About 7% per degree of warming.
Source: Increasing extreme precipitation variability plays a key role in future record-shattering event probability · DOI · quote verified