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Less Arctic sea ice both snows and melts Greenland

Losing Arctic sea ice in a +2 °C world adds winter snow to Greenland but more than offsets it with extra summer melt.

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How much sea-level equivalent is stored in the Greenland Ice Sheet, as cited?

7.4 m of global mean sea level if melted entirely.

What model and ensemble size were used?

CESM2.1 with 100 members per experiment.

What two ice/SST states were compared?

Pre-industrial versus a 2 °C warmer climate’s Arctic SIC and SSTs.

How large are the Arctic sea-ice area reductions?

3.6×10^6 km2 (19.0%) in winter and 6.4×10^6 km2 (48.4%) in summer.

What is the winter GrIS SMB response?

An increase of 23 ± 33 Gt year−1, mainly from 22 ± 33 Gt year−1 more precipitation.

What is the summer SMB response?

A decrease of 33 ± 64 Gt year−1 as melt increases 36 ± 76 Gt year−1.

How much does summer melt extent and bare ice increase?

Melt extent +3.5% and bare-ice area +0.6%.

What happens to blocking over this region?

A 2–3 day (~25%) increase in blocked circulation, with higher Z500 over Baffin Bay.

How is SMB calculated in CESM2?

SMB = SNOW + REFRZ − MELT − SUBL on elevation classes.

How far up does winter Arctic warming extend?

To about 600 hPa in the troposphere.

What SMB share of recent GrIS mass loss is cited?

About 60% from SMB decline and 40% from ice discharge.