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Compound coastal storms become more common by 2100

Heavy rain and storm-driven high seas already coincide far more than by chance, and that pairing is projected to increase along most coasts.

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What two meteorological hazards define compound coastal flooding here?

Extreme precipitation (3-day) and meteorological tide (surge plus wave setup).

What present-day global median joint return period is found?

17 years, versus 365 years if independent (~20× more likely).

How do Northern versus Southern Hemisphere medians compare?

15 years (NH) versus 23 years (SH), consistent with storm-track land distribution.

What fraction of global coastline sees more frequent concurrence under RCP8.5?

60% by the end of the century.

What is the global median ΔT and probability change?

ΔT = −20%, events 26% more probable.

How much does frequency rise above 40°N?

On average 2.6 times present (median ΔT = −61%).

What share of the concurrence-frequency change comes from precipitation?

77% globally; meteorological tide 20%; dependence 3%.

How is wave setup approximated?

0.2 times significant wave height, added to storm surge.

Which reanalysis and how many CMIP5 models?

ERA-Interim plus six GCMs (ACCESS, GFDL, CSIRO, EC-EARTH family).

What catchments are explicitly out of scope?

Long rivers ≳ 5–10 × 10^3 km2, where inland catchment processes dominate.

How is a robust ΔT defined?

Multi-model median outside present-day 95% natural-variability range and at least five of six models agree on sign.