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Nile flood peaks may jump this century

A basin-wide hydrology model driven by 30 CMIP6 climates projects much larger 50- and 200-year Nile floods at Dongola by 2100.

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What hydrology model and spatial setup were used?

SWAT+ with 34 subbasins and 234 HRUs.

What were calibration and validation periods?

Calibration 1984–1991; validation 1992–1997.

How many CMIP6 models and which SSPs?

30 NEX-GDDP models; SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.

How does mean AMS precipitation change versus 1984–2016?

From 9.7 mm/day historically to 12.5 (~29% higher) under SSP2-4.5 and 13.7 (~41% higher) under SSP5-8.5.

What are historical 50- and 200-year peaks at Dongola?

13,400 and 14,900 m³/s.

What are median SSP2-4.5 50- and 200-year peaks?

21,800 and 24,100 m³/s.

What are SSP5-8.5 50- and 200-year peaks?

Exceeding 24,700 and 27,400 m³/s.

By what percent do extreme streamflows intensify under the two SSPs?

49–63% (SSP2-4.5) and 73–85% (SSP5-8.5) depending on return period.

How often could today’s 100-year flood recur?

About every 4 years (SSP2-4.5) or 2.75 years (SSP5-8.5).

What GRACE TWS trends support a wetter recent Nile?

0.24 cm/yr (2002–2017) and 2.4 cm/yr (2018–2024).

Which flood frequency distribution was selected?

Log Pearson Type III (LP3), described as the best fit.