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Future Floyd–Florence rains could jump sharply

A design-rainfall method applied to three historic tropical cyclones projects large late-century increases in eastern North Carolina extreme rain.

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What is the design-rainfall approach?

Adjust observed storm rainfall by projected changes in precipitation-frequency statistics at each cell’s return period.

Which three tropical cyclones were analyzed?

Floyd (1999), Matthew (2016), and Florence (2018).

What 4-day MI did Florence set in North Carolina?

913 mm near Elizabethtown.

How much does CESM_4.5 raise ‘2100’ storm totals?

25% Floyd, 22% Matthew, 41% Florence.

How large are CESM_4.5 maximum-intensity increases?

954 mm (+89%), 714 mm (+90%), 1535 mm (+130%).

What observed event matches Florence ‘2100’ MI of 1535 mm?

Harvey 2017 point rainfall of 1539 mm.

Where are projected increases most alarming?

ENC coastal plain, also exposed to surge and compound flooding.

How do DRA increases compare with statistical downscaling?

This study’s 22% and 35% exceed 10% and 20% statistical-downscaling values for those RCPs.

What models and RCPs were downscaled?

CESM and GFDL-CM3 with WRF to 36 km under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.

How well did PRISM4 match observed MI?

Differences <5% (Floyd 611 vs 610 mm; Florence 913 vs 917 mm).

What Atlas 14 limitation affects return periods?

It omits over a dozen TCs including Matthew and Florence.