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Regional extreme sensitivity similar in CMIP5 and 6

CMIP6 and CMIP5 agree on how hot days, cold nights, and heavy rain scale with global warming, even though global climate sensitivity differs.

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How does CMIP6 regional extreme sensitivity compare with CMIP5?

Very similar for hottest days, coldest nights, and heaviest 1-day rain.

Which ETCCDI indices were analyzed?

TXx, TNn, and Rx1day.

At +1.5 °C, which uncertainty often wins?

Regional climate sensitivity (U_RTCS) often exceeds global transient climate sensitivity (U_GTCS).

What land processes shape regional sensitivity?

Soil-moisture and snow feedbacks that barely move global mean temperature.

Where does CMIP6 warm hot extremes more?

South America monsoon (SAM), plus eastern Russia, Tibet, and eastern Sahara.

Where does CMIP6 increase heavy precipitation more?

West Africa and the Sahel.

Why doesn’t the +1.5 °C uncertainty split apply at +4 °C?

The intermodel global-warming range grows from ~1.1 °C to ~2.8–3.5 °C.

How are warming-level years defined?

First 20-year period whose mean Tglob exceeds the target relative to 1850–1900.

What is the paper’s main recommendation?

Evaluate regional climate sensitivity on equal footing with global climate sensitivity.

How similar are TXx maps at each warming level?

CMIP5 and CMIP6 multimodel means look very similar.

Which CMIP6 scenarios were included?

SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5.