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South Pacific SSTs, not India, built Brazil’s 2014 drought
Isca experiments show 2013/14 South Pacific and South Atlantic SST anomalies favored the blocking high that dried SE Brazil; Indian Ocean SSTs did not.
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What circulation feature caused the 2014 SE Brazil drought?
A persistent South Atlantic blocking anticyclone that inhibited SACZ rainfall.
Source: Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil · DOI · quote verified
How rare was JF 2014 rainfall?
Lowest precipitation rate in 41 years in the study area.
Source: Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil · DOI · quote verified
How long did the mid-tropospheric anticyclone last?
A remarkable 5–6 weeks.
Source: Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil · DOI · quote verified
Did Indian Ocean SST forcing recreate the block?
No significant South Atlantic 500GPH anomalies.
Source: Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil · DOI · quote verified
Did tropical Pacific-only SSTs recreate the block?
No significant JF 500GPH anomalies in the South Atlantic box.
Source: Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil · DOI · quote verified
Which remote SST forcing did shift heights toward the block?
Extratropical South Pacific 2013/14 SST anomalies.
Source: Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil · DOI · quote verified
What is the SACZ?
A northwest–southeast convection band from Amazonia toward SE Brazil that dominates austral-summer rain.
Source: Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil · DOI · quote verified
How important is internal variability in Isca?
Even climatological SSTs yield a wide height range; 11.5% of members still have a strong high.
Source: Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil · DOI · quote verified
What model was used for SST experiments?
Isca at T42 with 50 vertical levels.
Source: Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil · DOI · quote verified
How do South Atlantic 500GPH and SE Brazil rain relate?
Significantly negatively correlated.
Source: Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil · DOI · quote verified
Did global 2013/14 SSTs change the height distribution?
Yes; they raised the likelihood of a positive South Atlantic 500GPH anomaly.
Source: Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil · DOI · quote verified