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CMIP6 sea-level sensitivity lags observations
CMIP6/ISMIP6 transient sea-level sensitivity is ~30% below the historical “all but glaciers” rate, mainly because Antarctic ice-sheet models barely respond to warming.
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What 2051–2100 steric TSLS do CMIP6 models give?
1.5 ± 0.2 mm/yr/K, close to the observed 1.4 ± 0.5.
Source: The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models · DOI · quote verified
What is Greenland’s modeled 2051–2100 TSLS?
0.8 ± 0.2 mm/yr/K, dominated by surface mass balance not dynamics.
Source: The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models · DOI · quote verified
How does EAIS TSLS sign compare with warming?
Weakly negative (−0.1 ± 0.2 mm/yr/K) because extra snowfall outweighs losses.
Source: The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models · DOI · quote verified
Does WAIS TSLS depend on 21st-century scenario?
No clear sensitivity; marine ice-sheet instability is not initiated in these runs.
Source: The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models · DOI · quote verified
How does modeled GMSL TSLS change across the century?
5.3 ± 1.0 mm/yr/K in 2016–2050 versus 3.0 ± 0.4 after 2050.
Source: The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models · DOI · quote verified
How large is the historical all-but-glacier vs model gap?
Observed 3.1 ± 0.4 mm/yr/K is ~30% greater than models.
Source: The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models · DOI · quote verified
What historical AIS TSLS do they quote?
0.4 ± 0.2 mm/yr/K, versus near-zero modeled Antarctic sensitivity.
Source: The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models · DOI · quote verified
How is TSLS defined?
Instantaneous change in the rate of sea-level rise associated with a temperature change.
Source: The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models · DOI · quote verified
How many GMSL projections are in the ensemble?
500, combining ice emulators with CMIP6 steric output.
Source: The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models · DOI · quote verified
What fraction of 20th-century SLR do they attribute to anthropogenic warming?
About 90%.
Source: The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models · DOI · quote verified
Why is glacier TSLS a poor century-scale metric?
Glacier area shrinks, so sensitivity falls in the second half of the century.
Source: The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models · DOI · quote verified